Netanyahu Seeks UN Speech Boost as Trump Meeting Slips Away
The speech lands just over a month ahead of Israel's Oct. 27 election, with Netanyahu's bloc still trailing the 61 seats needed to form a government, according to a Zman Yisrael poll cited in the analysis.
Diplomatic reporter Lazar Berman wrote that Netanyahu's office had pushed to schedule a meeting with Trump, but the US president was "apparently unwilling to make it happen." Trump met with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani this week and has stopped short of explicitly endorsing Netanyahu for another term, the analysis noted. After the piece was published, Trump shared a story referencing a week-old poll showing Netanyahu's bloc slightly ahead of its rivals — though still shy of a majority — without offering an explicit endorsement, Berman pointed out.
A face-to-face meeting would have let Netanyahu revive a campaign talking point from past elections: that his personal rapport with foreign leaders sets him apart from challengers, chief among them Gadi Eisenkot, Berman wrote. It also would have given him a direct channel to press Israel's interests on Iran, Lebanon and Gaza with Trump himself — potentially reinforcing his past claim of being "in another league" than his rivals, according to the analysis.
Domestically, Netanyahu faces mounting headwinds. Berman cited voter frustration over his failure "to prevent the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, his refusal to establish a state commission of inquiry into the disaster, his outgoing coalition's insistent refusal to enlist Haredim, and a growing extremist strain in society."
While world leaders will hear Netanyahu's UN remarks, Berman wrote that "his foremost audience" will be Israeli voters watching from home. The prime minister must convince them he remains the strongest hand on security following what Berman described as three "decidedly inconclusive campaigns" in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
On Gaza, the analysis expects Netanyahu to point to Israeli military control over more than 60% of the territory and reaffirm his pledge to disarm Hamas — a goal Berman noted he has yet to explain how he'll achieve. Berman also suggested Netanyahu may tout the return of all captives from Gaza while glossing over the fact that more than 40 people taken alive were later killed or died in captivity.
On Lebanon, the analysis anticipates Netanyahu will highlight the damage dealt to Hezbollah and Israel's continued troop presence in the south, though Berman argued that the plan for Lebanese forces to fill areas as Israeli troops pull back stops short of actually disarming Hezbollah.
Iran poses a separate challenge. Berman wrote that despite Iran's military and economic weakening, there's no sign its leadership is prepared to "make concessions" on the Strait of Hormuz or its nuclear program — meaning Netanyahu will need to frame the campaign's results as a "victory" even without progress on Israel's top priorities. Berman suggested the UN address could also be an attempt to shape Trump's approach toward Tehran, noting that Israel's Channel 12 expects Netanyahu to present intelligence on Iran's nuclear program and reconstruction efforts, likely accompanied by the visual aids he's used in prior UN appearances.
The analysis also flagged that Trump's envoys met with Iranian officials Tuesday, even as Trump spoke of pursuing a deal after the US midterms. Berman assessed that Trump is unlikely to resume major strikes on Iran before then, and argued Tehran's stance won't shift on Washington's electoral timetable given its insistence on formal recognition of control over Hormuz and its refusal to negotiate over its nuclear program.
Netanyahu's New York itinerary looks notably thin compared with past UN visits, Berman wrote, with no high-level meetings expected before he returns to Israel for the campaign's final stretch — a sharp contrast to previous trips that included days of leader-to-leader diplomacy around his UN address. Berman tied the shrinking guest list partly to damage he said Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners have done to Israel's international standing.
The visit comes amid expected protests in New York over Israel's actions in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, and just a day after Mayor Mamdani called Netanyahu a "war criminal" and an "architect of a horrific genocide against the Palestinians." Mamdani has previously called on US federal authorities to enforce the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for Netanyahu, while acknowledging city authorities have no legal power to carry it out themselves. The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
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